Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Samuelson/ depression?

The article "Is This A Replay of 1929" by Robert J. Samuelson describes the situation of the current economy compared to the economy during the Great Depression. Samuelson believes that the economy is not nearly as bad as it was in 1929, and it's not possible for economy to be that bad again, so there is no need for panic. The reasons we were in the Great Depression and the reasons our economy is so bad right now are two completely separate situations. Although they do have some similarities, the differences are the things we need to focus on.

There is no need for panic, because the United States has already suffered 10 recessions since the 1940's, and each recession lasts on average 10 months. The two worst recessions lasted for 16 months with an unemployment rate of 9% and 10.8%; right now our unemployment rate is at 6% so we still have a ways to go to even compare to our past recessions, not to mention the tremendous unemployment rate in 1929. This is nothing our economy hasn't seen before and will not be able to control. Another example is the stock market, also having 10 bear markets in the past. The average stock market decline was 31.5% and we are currently 30% below the peak reached in 2007. Which is by no means good, but it is still a drastic difference from when the stock market dropped 90% beginning the Depression.

The debt from the 1920's resulted from war and an excessive amount of borrowing, similar to the problems today. But unlike now, Americans borrowed for cars, radios, and appliances; Today most of the borrowing is for houses or against inflated home values. Yet, the federal government is more in control and more powerful then it was back then. Based on the government's spending, it provides better stabilization for our economy, but because government officials moved to fast and panicked, unlike the officials in the 1920's, our crisis still remains. The national debt is what holds our economy together, it's something that can be controlled, and based on the facts, America will be out of recession within the next year.

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